Question: At what deployment scale does private LoRaWAN become more cost-effective than NB-IoT over 10 years?
Given:
- LoRaWAN sensor: €15/device
- NB-IoT sensor: €20/device
- LoRaWAN gateway: €1,500 (covers 2 km radius, ~5 km² area)
- NB-IoT subscription: €30/device/year
- Deployment density: 20 devices/km² (e.g., smart city sensors)
- Network server: €300/month (LoRaWAN only)
- Gateway maintenance: €100/gateway/year
Step 1: Calculate cost as function of device count (N)
LoRaWAN Total Cost (10 years):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sensors: N × €15
Gateways: (N / 100) × €1,500 [100 devices per gateway at 20 devices/km²]
Network server: €300 × 12 × 10 = €36,000
Maintenance: (N / 100) × €100 × 10
LoRaWAN(N) = 15N + 15(N/100) + 36,000 + (N/100) × 1,000
= 15N + 0.15N + 36,000 + 10N
= 25.15N + 36,000
NB-IoT Total Cost (10 years):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sensors: N × €20
Subscription: N × €30 × 10 years
NB-IoT(N) = 20N + 300N = 320N
Step 2: Find break-even point
LoRaWAN(N) = NB-IoT(N)
25.15N + 36,000 = 320N
36,000 = 320N - 25.15N
36,000 = 294.85N
N = 122 devices
Break-even: ~122 devices
Step 3: Validate with concrete scenarios
| 100 |
€38,515 |
€32,000 |
NB-IoT |
-€6,515 |
| 122 |
€39,068 |
€39,040 |
Break-even |
~€0 |
| 500 |
€54,575 |
€160,000 |
LoRaWAN |
€105,425 |
| 1,000 |
€61,150 |
€320,000 |
LoRaWAN |
€258,850 |
| 10,000 |
€287,500 |
€3,200,000 |
LoRaWAN |
€2,912,500 |
Step 4: Sensitivity analysis
The break-even point varies with:
Gateway cost impact:
- At €500/gateway: Break-even = 82 devices
- At €2,000/gateway: Break-even = 162 devices
Subscription cost impact:
- At €24/year: Break-even = 147 devices
- At €36/year: Break-even = 107 devices
Deployment density impact:
- 10 devices/km² (rural): 200 devices/gateway → Break-even = 98 devices
- 50 devices/km² (urban): 50 devices/gateway → Break-even = 183 devices
Key Insights:
- Below 100 devices: NB-IoT is cheaper (avoid gateway infrastructure)
- 100-200 devices: Break-even zone (consider other factors like reliability, control)
- Above 200 devices: LoRaWAN dramatically cheaper and savings scale linearly
- At 10,000 devices: LoRaWAN saves €2.9M (~91% cost reduction)
Decision Rules:
- Pilot (50-100 devices): Start with NB-IoT (lower risk, faster deployment)
- Production (500+ devices): Invest in LoRaWAN infrastructure
- Massive scale (5,000+): Private LoRaWAN is economically imperative
- Hybrid: Use NB-IoT for mobile/remote outliers, LoRaWAN for fixed/dense clusters