Let’s calculate the 5-year TCO for private LoRaWAN vs NB-IoT at scale.
LoRaWAN (\(N = 50{,}000\) sensors): \[\text{TCO}_{\text{LoRa}} = \underbrace{30 \times 1{,}500}_{\text{gateways}} + \underbrace{50{,}000 \times 15}_{\text{sensors}} + \underbrace{300 \times 12 \times 5}_{\text{network server}} + \underbrace{100{,}000}_{\text{install}} + \underbrace{25{,}000}_{\text{maintenance}}\] \[= 45{,}000 + 750{,}000 + 18{,}000 + 100{,}000 + 25{,}000 = 938{,}000 \text{ EUR}\]
NB-IoT (\(N = 50{,}000\) sensors, \(S = 1.50\) EUR/month subscription): \[\text{TCO}_{\text{NB-IoT}} = \underbrace{50{,}000 \times 20}_{\text{sensors}} + \underbrace{100{,}000}_{\text{install}} + \underbrace{N \times S \times 12 \times 5}_{\text{subscriptions}}\] \[= 1{,}000{,}000 + 100{,}000 + (50{,}000 \times 1.50 \times 60) = 1{,}100{,}000 + 4{,}500{,}000 = 5{,}600{,}000 \text{ EUR}\]
Cost difference: \(5{,}600{,}000 - 938{,}000 = 4{,}662{,}000\) EUR (NB-IoT costs ~6× more)
Break-even: LoRaWAN is already cheaper by Year 1 (\(938{,}000 < 1{,}100{,}000\) initial NB-IoT cost alone). After deployment, recurring NB-IoT subscriptions (\(900{,}000\)/year) dominate versus LoRaWAN’s minimal \(8{,}600\)/year recurring cost.