Scenario: A company with 50 conference rooms finds that rooms booked for meetings are actually empty 35% of the time (“ghost bookings”). They want sensors to detect actual occupancy and release unused rooms.
Step 1: Choose the sensing approach
| PIR motion |
HC-SR501 |
Cheap, simple |
Misses stationary people |
USD 3 |
| CO2 level |
SCD40 |
Counts approximate people |
3-5 min response delay |
USD 25 |
| mmWave radar |
LD2410 |
Detects stationary people |
Higher cost, requires tuning |
USD 8 |
| Thermal array |
AMG8833 (8x8 pixels) |
Counts people, privacy-safe |
Moderate cost, limited range |
USD 35 |
Step 2: Accuracy analysis with real numbers
Testing PIR motion sensors in 10 conference rooms for 2 weeks:
Total meeting hours booked: 1,400 hours
Hours rooms actually occupied: 910 hours (65%)
Hours rooms empty (ghost bookings): 490 hours (35%)
PIR detection results:
True positives (occupied, detected): 865 / 910 = 95.1%
False negatives (occupied, not detected): 45 / 910 = 4.9%
-> People sitting still for 15+ minutes without moving
True negatives (empty, detected empty): 485 / 490 = 99.0%
False positives (empty, false trigger): 5 / 490 = 1.0%
-> HVAC airflow triggering sensor
A 4.9% false negative rate means the system would incorrectly release 45 hours of rooms while people are still meeting – unacceptable.
Step 3: Combined sensor solution
Using PIR + CO2 together eliminates both weaknesses:
PIR: Fast detection (< 1 second), misses stationary people
CO2: Detects breathing (stationary OK), slow response (3-5 min)
Combined logic:
Room occupied = PIR triggered OR CO2 > 600 ppm
Room empty = PIR silent for 5 min AND CO2 < 500 ppm
Combined results:
True positives: 906 / 910 = 99.6%
False negatives: 4 / 910 = 0.4% (borderline 1-person meetings)
Cost per room: USD 3 (PIR) + USD 25 (SCD40) + USD 5 (ESP32) = USD 33
Total 50 rooms: USD 1,650
Step 4: ROI calculation
Ghost booking cost (wasted room-hours):
490 hours/2-week-period x 26 periods/year = 12,740 hours/year
Average room hourly cost (HVAC, lighting): USD 8/hour
Annual waste: 12,740 x USD 8 = USD 101,920
System recovery rate: 99.6% detection
Recovered hours: 12,740 x 0.996 = 12,689 hours
Annual savings: 12,689 x USD 8 = USD 101,512
System cost: USD 1,650 + USD 500 (installation) = USD 2,150
Payback period: USD 2,150 / USD 101,512 = 8 days